Ahhhh, thanks all for indulging me while I took a few days off to enjoy the first few days of summer.  Not actual, seasonal summer of course, but that magical time between Memorial Day and Labor Day when it’s hot, teenagers are terrorizing the streets with their awful driving, and my children alternate between vegging out in front of electronic screens and screeching at each other over every imagined slight.

But I’m back and ready for it all.  What have we missed?

Of everything going on, I’ve found the Trump/Merkel frost to be the most significant.  Trump’s unconcealed contempt for Europe is pretty obvious to everyone by now and Merkel has apparently decided that she’s going to have to do something about it.

It’s not clear to me what she’s going to do.  Or the rest of Europe.

For what it’s worth, I’m fully in favor of the US dropping out NATO and all other agreements with EU nations that don’t strengthen our own interests.

Let’s get some discussion going this week.  Say that NATO is dissolved and the Trump Administration succeeds in its supposed purpose of realigning with Russia at the expense of Europe.  What then?  Maybe I’m right that Europe is a dead weight on us that is fully capable of providing for its own defense and that Merkel is wise to plan on the continent looking out for itself.  Or not.

How will it all play out?

 

13 comments

  1. Though I don’t think it will ever happen, if NATO were dissolved we’d be in a World War within 2 decades. Most of the EU hates every other country in the EU. Europe loves to have us subsidize their military needs so they can spend it on healthcare etc – it’d be awesome to see them foot their own bill and see how much discretionary funding they had left over for their socialist paradise.

    Regardless, they need to share in the burden of keeping them from killing each other. It’s time for them to shoulder the appropriate weight. I’m tired of footing the bill all over the world and then having those same countries criticize us for it.

  2. See, I think world war is more likely to come sooner if NATO is not dissolved. Entangling alliances were a factor in sucking the great powers into both previous world wars.

    Europe isn’t worth it.

  3. I can see that too. I guess regardless it seems only a matter of time before Europe dissolves into chaos. It’d be nice to sit one out and let them fight it out.

  4. True. I started to put that into my first post – we either pay some now or pay a lot later. But, this is a “what if fantasy post” so I am dreaming we can stay the hell out of it. lol. But I have many friends over there and would want them protected, so yeah – we’d be there.

  5. Ah, but that’s only because Hitler declared war on us. Stupidly. Although, we did leave him with few options since we were helping the British hunt his submarines and arming them and the Soviets.

    And things definitely would have been better if we and the British had sat out WW1 and just let the Germans win.

  6. You’ll be shocked to hear this but I am a big fan of Trump getting tough with Europe and telling them America is about to shut our doors if they don’t reciprocate our “partnership.” Germany’s trade deficit with us is a political boycott, and we shouldn’t be cucking ourselves trying to buy our way back into their hearts. We don’t need their stuff and that’s that.

    they’ve had not problem saying they don’t need ours.

    We should also either re-align NATO with amendments our opt out of it altogether. World War 4 will happen when Russia inevitable re-annexes an Eastern Bloc state that is now a member of both the EU and NATO. Most of those nations have bought scores of weaponry and basically defiantly dare the Russians to invade, and per NATO rules we’d be obliged to help them.

    Europeans are smart. They can go to the frontline and defend these vales.

  7. So now it’s apparently official that Trump will pull out of the Paris agreement. In the short term, our allies will throw hissy fits. Long term, they need us more than we need them at least when it comes to trade. With their smaller economies, all competing for domestic goods, that’s what could lead to a war more than fears over Russia or Trump. In the end, most of Europe’s wars have been about broke governments needing cash that their neighbors wouldn’t or couldn’t give them.

    NATO does serve as a deterrent but this seems more about Germany upset that the US (and other countries) won’t do their bidding. If they want to pull an exit of their own, let them-they’ll come back once they realize how much money they’d lose.

  8. Not my specialist subject, but I guess I can give a few points from a European:

    Firstly – NATO is the organisation that puts the USA as leader of the free world. The heft of the US gives it a huge amount of pan global power in influencing geopolitical decisions. Leaving NATO would give that up.

    Secondly – (and linked to this) – a stable peaceful Europe is good for the US. Let’s say France invades Germany. Yes, it may not be Americas fight, but whoever wins becomes a rival superpower to the US. It’s not about the US fighting Europes wars, it’s about US powers preventing them from happening anyway.

    That’s to your point Brownbag – it might be nice to have them fight it out, but once they’re done, who do you think they’ll look to next? Its a preventative measure.

    Thirdly – It’s actually a pretty cheap way to have a military presence in Europe. It may actually cost you more to not be a part of it.

  9. one of the reason that WW1 got so bad, was all the treaties of mutual defense, and alliances various nations had to keep the peace…………

  10. i cant see the US, aligning with Russia under Putin. not gonna happen, even Putin wont go for that. So no Co-Dommion, there Dr. Pournell.
    As for the end of Nato, possible, but out of that there will certainly be anew alliance created. UK Poland, Romania, Norway .. maybe some of the Baltic or Finland Sweden? ..
    The rest, , the Germans and French will be at loggerheads id assume. if they work it out the we will ha ea strong centralized authoritarian state in western Europe…russia? who knows Putin will not be there forever…

  11. chaos is coming to Europe again, this has pretty much been the longest stretch of peace the continent has know, all go things come to a end.

  12. 1. the US is the “leader of the free world” due to economic/cultural/military power , if we are in NATO or not, We are 90% or so of the strike ability of NATO.

    2. mostly agree there, another Franco Prussian war, would weaken both nations any victor would be in a sorry state., No European power, outside of Russia is a threat. no one has the sealift/airlift to even come close to being in a position to counter the US. At most they could deny us the use of current bases. Russia doent have sufficent resources to invade Germany or further west as of right now.
    3. yes cheap, and a sad statement that the wild gun crazy american are the only thing keeping the peaceful civilized Europeans from slitting each other throats in the night.

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