Recent polling has indicated that the prospects for Democrats massacring the GOP in the 2018 midterms are weakening. Instead, they’ll simply take the Republicans’ pants off and spank them a bit, but will stop short of utterly buttfucking them.
For my part, I think that the Democrats will pick up a significant number of seats based entirely on enthusiasm. Democrats are the party of government and I think that the party’s current almost-unprecedented weakness within all levels and branches of government is screwing with its voters’ heads. They’re sort of demented over it and are eager to get some measure of control back.
It sounds crazy, but I question if it wouldn’t be a good thing if the Democrats managed to take control of the House in 2018. I don’t think it’s a good thing from a governance perspective, I just think that having some feeling of control again might make the Democratic base less deranged. Maybe they’d finally feel like they have some restraint over Trump and could finally tone down the rhetoric in favor of some productive action.
I know that I’m just fooling myself though. The shutdown proves it, as it was executed for no other reason than to piss in Trump’s eye. The Democrats in the House would be under unimaginable pressure every day to introduce articles of impeachment against Trump and I can’t be sure that they wouldn’t actually do it. To me, it just isn’t acceptable to quietly allow the Democrats to regain the majority because I don’t trust them to behave responsibly.
The GOP’s only hope is to recognize that it is as powerful now as it’s going to be for the next century. It’s do or die. They need to pass all of the legislation that they can while they can (particularly on immigration reform), pray that most Americans recognize that they’ll directly benefit from the tax cut they passed last month as soon as possible, try not to let any more Roy Moore candidacy’s happen, and hope that the Democrats run the most far-left lunatics they can find in competitive districts.
The GOP has an impossible task in 2018. It has to convince independent voters–and its own–that it is capable of governing effectively and the Democrats are utterly hopeless. The shutdown has certainly helped with the latter, but the former isn’t anything they’ve managed to accomplish within recent memory.
Should they fail, I hold out hope that Democratic leadership can be strong enough to let sanity win out. I doubt it, but I can certainly hope for the best no matter how bad it looks.