About 8 hours from now we will find out if Trump backs out of the Iran deal, high drama.

Alright guys, you have the president’s ear, what should he do and why?

If you want to opine about the need to hang Kerry for sedition, I’m up for that as well.

For me this is one of those issues that is all fluff/little substance. If we could go back in time and strangle this deal in its crib, I would be all for that. But the damage is done so I’m wondering, aside from showing the world how contrary he is, how he is his own man, and how terrible the deal was in the first place, what’s the point of backing out now?

Yeah, both Tel Aviv and Riyadh want us to back out, that was clear from the beginning. Our European allies want us to stay. I side a bit more with the Europeans on this mostly from a pragmatic point of view.

Like most things, there is a risk/reward balancing act to navigate. The risks are minimal in backing out. From a U.S. stand point this really isn’t even a real treaty, a gentleman’s agreement, nothing more. If we back out I don’t see  Tehran doing anything differently. So we snap back sanctions, Tehran is still doing business with the rest of the world, they don’t need our stuff. They already got their money, we certainly can’t take that back. They have their oil contracts, we can’t touch those. With the existing deal, they already have pretty much total secrecy anyway, no real inspections to speak of, full speed ahead in their ballistic missile research. It will give them more ammo for bad mouthing the Great Satan ,”See, they can’t be trusted with any agreements they make”. They will still sponsor terrorism around the world, and fund the destabilization of regimes around the M.E.. Trump will get a chance to show the world that he is no Obama stooge and backs out of bad deals, OK.

Staying won’t accomplish much either. Iran is left to do business a usual, they get their nuclear and ballistic missile technology left intact, and Trump will have to find something else to complain about. It might bolster any N.K. negotiations down the road, cementing our honor in sticking with deals we make with other nations.

We can continue to brow beat the U.N. into sanctioning Iran over their ballistic missile and terror programs, for what good that will do.

Staying or leaving, I see nothing much as changing. A moral victory for Trump, I suppose, if he backs out. And TBH with all the fuss he has made so far, him staying will kinda make him out as  a pussy, probably the biggest indicator right there that he is backing out of the deal.

11 comments

  1. I’m fine if he backs out. The evidence Israel put together is pretty damning.

    And I’m fine if he were to throw that douche bag Kerry in prison for violating the Logan Act.

  2. I’m with you on this one. The deal sucked, but it was working if the sole objective was to keep Iran from developing nukes for a few years. Big question is what sort of leverage Trump has to get a better Iran Deal and, I suppose, what he would even want.

    I’m of the opinion that Iran isn’t a direct threat to us or anything we should care about, but we’re still stuck on doing Saudi Arabia and Israel’s bidding for some stupid reason.

  3. Yeah, this is one point of agreement between us. The deal wasn’t great, but Iran was in compliance and I would rather work toward a better deal within that framework. Now that we’ve backed out, why should anyone — including North Korea — believe us?

    (That having been said, Obama deserves some blame here for not getting the Senate to ratify it. That would have been very hard, granted, but it would have made it hard for Trump to back out as well.)

  4. I really dont see how staying in this non-treaty does us any good. Oh inspectors? ok, have the inspectors inspected anything? no? hmm

    in the end the only thing here changes is the politics, of whos the big bad guy. If you believed that this treaty er agreement was gonna keep iran from developing nuclear weapons, then you are just being stupid. Iran got what they wanted, and now they can play the victim card again.
    Kinda reminds me of all the agreements we made with north Kora and all the assurance that THIS agreement will curtail their ambitions..ect ect ect,.,,, then BOOM a nuke goes off. Then its all well shucks we tried, we really really tried..

  5. Iran and Saudi are gonna scuffle, they been dancing around this for a few decades now. best we jsut stay out of it as best we can and bee there to send in the contractors to rebuild things…

  6. I’m just willing to say I don’t know enough about how Iran has behaved to immediately say trump was a dumbfuck on this. I don’t want Iran to have nukes, and I don’t want us to have to re-enter the Middle East because Iran doesn’t give a fuck anymore without a deal either.

    In the short term, the deal appears to have done its job. Iran isn’t enriching uranium and they ARE complying with inspections. However, they’re also fucking with us in Syria, Lebanon, and elsewhere.

    So, there’s some justification to saying the deal is bad. We’re dealing with horrible people here, and facing horrible outcomes so the old shit sandwich adage seems appropriate.

    From the small but I can glean, I don’t like scrapping a functional agreement without anything to replace it. I know that Iran sucks and they are really ducking around, but so do many nations we sanction or de-sanction, most notably Russia.

    The deal exists for 15 years, and in that time the mullahs will be dead. Iran has a very western-friendly youth population, that is in regular contact with Iranians in western nations. The deal was meant to outlast the mullahs and re-visit after the regime died.

    In the abscence if an agreement, I can’t imagine us having any other leverage with Iran than military action, and I think I’ve seen enough young Americans die or come home to ptsd and opioid addictions to have the thirst for another war there.

    I freely admit, though, that I don’t know just how dangerous Iran is now. It could be a disastrous situation, and trump might be right.

    More than North Korea this would be a great time to see a regional neighbor like China show solidarity, but once again they’re building roads and products while we’re spending millions watching their backyard for free.

  7. Aside from Russia and Israel, I don’t see anyone else who could reign in Iran. We benefited from having China along with a host of allies who were able to bring pressure to bear on North Korea, which is a lot more isolated internationally than Iran.

  8. Does anyone, hand on heart, really believe Trump has read the agreement or understands it to the level required to make such a decision? If so, I have a bridge to sell you.

  9. Does anyone, hand on heart, really believe Trump has read the agreement or understands it to the level required to make such a decision? If so, I have a bridge to sell you.

    No. But I do believe he has advisers who have.

    Do you think Obama read or understood Obamacare to the level required to make such a decision when he signed it? If so, then why did he offer exemptions repeatedly to various parts of the law? His advisers, and the idiots in Congress didn’t even know what it meant (thanks, Pelosi).

  10. But I do believe he has advisers who have.

    Right, and the last so-called “adult in the room”, Mattis, tried to talk him out of it.
    This isn’t a decision based on facts or science.

    Now, however, the President has decided to pull out of the deal without any expert advice from his chief science advisor – a position that still remains empty over a year into his presidency.

    It’s not like Trump is getting expert scientific advice from his Secretary of Energy, either. Unlike the past two secretaries, Trump’s Secretary, Rick Perry, is not a prominent atomic and nuclear physicist. He also doesn’t have an advanced degree in science.

    https://www.sciencealert.com/scientists-disagree-trump-iran-nuclear-deal

    It would be hilarious if it wasn’t so pathetically inept.

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