About 8 hours from now we will find out if Trump backs out of the Iran deal, high drama.
Alright guys, you have the president’s ear, what should he do and why?
If you want to opine about the need to hang Kerry for sedition, I’m up for that as well.
For me this is one of those issues that is all fluff/little substance. If we could go back in time and strangle this deal in its crib, I would be all for that. But the damage is done so I’m wondering, aside from showing the world how contrary he is, how he is his own man, and how terrible the deal was in the first place, what’s the point of backing out now?
Yeah, both Tel Aviv and Riyadh want us to back out, that was clear from the beginning. Our European allies want us to stay. I side a bit more with the Europeans on this mostly from a pragmatic point of view.
Like most things, there is a risk/reward balancing act to navigate. The risks are minimal in backing out. From a U.S. stand point this really isn’t even a real treaty, a gentleman’s agreement, nothing more. If we back out I don’t see Tehran doing anything differently. So we snap back sanctions, Tehran is still doing business with the rest of the world, they don’t need our stuff. They already got their money, we certainly can’t take that back. They have their oil contracts, we can’t touch those. With the existing deal, they already have pretty much total secrecy anyway, no real inspections to speak of, full speed ahead in their ballistic missile research. It will give them more ammo for bad mouthing the Great Satan ,”See, they can’t be trusted with any agreements they make”. They will still sponsor terrorism around the world, and fund the destabilization of regimes around the M.E.. Trump will get a chance to show the world that he is no Obama stooge and backs out of bad deals, OK.
Staying won’t accomplish much either. Iran is left to do business a usual, they get their nuclear and ballistic missile technology left intact, and Trump will have to find something else to complain about. It might bolster any N.K. negotiations down the road, cementing our honor in sticking with deals we make with other nations.
We can continue to brow beat the U.N. into sanctioning Iran over their ballistic missile and terror programs, for what good that will do.
Staying or leaving, I see nothing much as changing. A moral victory for Trump, I suppose, if he backs out. And TBH with all the fuss he has made so far, him staying will kinda make him out as a pussy, probably the biggest indicator right there that he is backing out of the deal.